Simulate the Demographic Changes in Gaza Strip After the Last Three Wars by Using Statistical Physics

Muneer Ahmad Sumour, Mohammad Musa Shabat

Abstract


During the last period the Gaza Strip suffered a brutal war  that has affected all aspects of life in Gaza Strip, especially the demographic and social harmonization, low level of birth rate and increased level of young people emigration.

Mortality and birth rates, emigration and retirement age, those factors play a major role in demographic changes in many countries.  The level of birth rate decreased in the past century, first without a noticeable decrease of the fertility, moreover the level of human life expectancy increased, leading to a significant increase in population growth. In many countries the number of births has fallen and the human life expectancy increased. This study concentrates on measuring, analyzing and extrapolating of age structure in the Gaza Strip for next few decades, using the updated data available.  A Fortran program was designed to simulate and analysis of statistical data,  to examine the demographic change in the Gaza Strip and the expectation of Palestinian problems in the future. The study showed that the Palestinians life expectancy will increase, the fertility the Palestinians women will decrease, the fraction of young manpower will decrease. Therefore the study recommends to increase the retirement age to 65 years, and to develop a strategic plan to decrease the emigration of young people


Keywords


Demographic change; birth rate; fertility rate; retirement age; Palestinian Territories; and emigration

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